
Need your daily dose of crazy? Then listen to Deutsche Bank analyst Matt Chesler, who predicts "the worst of the magazine page declines appears behind us." Does anyone have this guy's number and care to set him straight with Operation Doomsday Scenario?
Relying on gut instinct and not the latest quarterly data (which isn't available yet), Chesler is expecting a 21 percent decline in ad pages for 2009 Q1; in 2008 Q2, ad pages fell 17 percent, according to the Publishers Information Bureau. So what does the future hold?
Well, Chesler might have one piece of news right: the worst of ad page declines is behind us. But declines themselves are here to stay! Look for 16 percent drops in Q2 and 12 percent in Q3.
So if the good news is that "the bottom cannot fall out any farther because it's already hit near bottom" brightens your day, then start popping the bubbly. Us? We're reading this analysis as, "Ad pages can't drop any faster because then there would be no advertising at all." And, like, that's not going to happen. Till 2010.
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