The Primary Campaign Goes On …
… Possibly Bitch Slapped By The Bradley Effect

barack.JPGDon’t you love when a news story could possibly be part of a larger phenomenon you’ve never heard of? We do!

Some are wondering if Barack Obama’s loss last night was due to the Bradley Effect.

Haven’t heard of it? Then you haven't been watching enough cable news!

Not to make you feel stupid, but the phenomenon is the propensity for white people to pretend (while responding to exit polls or otherwise) to be voting for a black candidate during polling because they don’t want to seem racist. And when it’s just them and the curtain, they’re all, "Psych! I really am racist because there’s nothing more racist that supporting a non-black candidate for separate and unique political reasons."

But we exaggerate. And conflate. A lot of stuff went down in New Hampshire this weekend.

Hillary almost cried. It was nice out. Everyone turned out.

Also, polling, like psychoanalysis, is an inexact science. It's probably not even a science at all; you can't exactly get a doctorate in it. And that’s not just us talking, though we love the sound of our own voice.

Gary Langer, Director of Polling at ABC News, isn't sure what happened either: "In the end there may be no smoking gun," he says. "Those polls may have been accurate, but done in by a superior get-out-the-vote effort, or by very late deciders whose motivations may or may not ever be known."

Bradley effect or not, we’ll find out who the Democrats really want to be running for President in the coming weeks. But one thing's for sure: It's not that crazy Gravel guy!

[Photo Credit: Stephen Voss via Flickr]

Jan 9, 2008 · posted by rebecca · Link · 2 Responses
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  • Comments (2)

    No. 1 reno0627 says:

    I think that Obama would make a fantastic president. Look at his speech at Obama's Speech

    Posted: Jan 9, 2008 at 5:32 pm
    No. 2 William Hallowell says:

    Interesting post. After Sen. Clinton’s unforeseen NH victory, many people are questioning the pollsters. There is so much to consider when exploring what goes into political polling. Predicting elections is one of the most difficult challenges in survey work. Generally speaking, election surveys actually do work fairly well (it's worth remembering that the polling on the Republican side in New Hampshire was pretty accurate). For all their flaws, surveys are still one of the best available tools for figuring out what the public wants. Check out our Public Agenda blog at http://publicagenda.org/headli.....s_blog.cfm for more on this!

    Posted: Jan 11, 2008 at 8:32 am
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