In not exactly news, NBC confirms they've inked Jimmy Fallon to take over for Conan O'Brien when the late night red head does some taking over himself, for Jay Leno, sometime around June 2009. [NYT] There's been mucho speculation about what Jeff Zucker & Co. were going to decide about NBC's late night slate, after rampant rumors about Jay Leno not being ready to give up his post, and NBC's fears that Leno would quickly jump to a waiting competitor like ABC or Fox, allowed for rumormongering about how Leno might not leave, which would mean the network would have to pay O'Brien a rumored $40-45 million penalty fee for not hiring him. That's a lot of cash, yes, but Leno's show is, like the Today show, a cash-frickin'-cow.

The possibility that Leno would stick around carried some weight because, well, he's Leno. And: His ratings consistently beat David Letterman at CBS, and haven't gone down the path like the sinking ship that is NBC's primetime. He remains a huge commodity, and it's certain NBC remained (remains?) nervous about his exit.

But as far back as September 2004, NBC guaranteed O'Brien the 11:30pm slot that Leno holds. They promised it to him, in ink, to keep him from defecting to another network, the very scenario they're wary of with Leno right now.

And then there was the January news that O'Brien, currently based in New York, bought a $10.5 million-plus home in Brentwood, Calif., offering strong evidence that NBC intended to keep its word and make him the big gun.

NBC also sold off its 34-acre Burbank lot, where The Tonight Show is housed, and a (intentionally?) leaked memo read "The Tonight Show With Conan O’Brien … will move to Universal Stage One [in Universal City] in 2009." [VF]

As for Fallon? In the later timeslot, he'll be facing against CBS' Craig Ferguson, who, like the Leno-Letterman/NBC-CBS war, has always been beat by O'Brien's show in ratings. But there was that one week he slipped ahead, and Ferguson, we imagine, attracts the off-beat young male viewership that Fallon will resonate with more than O'Brien ever did, making Fallon's stab at traction even harder.

So sadly, here's our prediction: Fallon will be, if not on par with, then maybe just a nudge above, Carson Daly, whose own show was so disposable that it nearly got canceled in the writers strike fallout. Daly's show is nearly unwatchable, and nearly unwatched (though it does air late at night).

Fallon, meanwhile, carries a bit more likability factor than Daly, we'd argue, but these shows can live and die on opening monologues, and we're not sure the ex-SNL-er has it in him. The witty banter with guests part? Even that we're worried about. He hasn't done so well with it on film, and he gets to rehearse and do multiple takes there.

Perhaps all that's left to be decided, then, is what Jay Leno will do. Sit on his hands, we imagine, is not on the list of options.